Treasury Market Summary

[출처/시간] Briefing.com - 3:09 PM ET, 05/21/2026

Longer Tenors Overcome Weak StartU.S. Treasuries endured some volatility on Thursday, but 10s and 30s ultimately managed an extension of their midweek gains while shorter tenors recovered some of their losses but could not avoid a lower finish. The market faced pressure from the start after an overnight rebound in the price of oil, which overshadowed a big batch of economic data that included weak flash PMI readings from major European economies. Treasuries spent the morning in a sideways range near their starting levels, but midday action saw a bounce that lifted 10s and 30s into positive territory as oil slid back below $100/bbl. These moves were owed to speculation that a final draft of a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran could be made public soon. Treasuries finished near session highs with the 30-yr yield ending at a one-week low. Meanwhile, crude oil fell past its 50-day moving average (98.54) to a two-week low. The U.S. Dollar Index touched its best level in nearly seven weeks before narrowing its gain to 0.2% at 99.25. Yield Check: 2-yr: +5 bps to 4.09% 3-yr: +4 bps to 4.15% 5-yr: +3 bps to 4.26% 10-yr: +1 bp to 4.59% 30-yr: UNCH at 5.11%News: The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast for Q2 GDP was increased to 4.3% from 4.0% in the previous estimate. Incoming Fed Chairman Warsh will be sworn in tomorrow. Japan's extra budget is expected to reach JPY3 trillion, but Prime Minister Takaichi has not confirmed that amount yet. Bank Indonesia raised its policy rate by 50 basis points to 5.25% against expectations for a smaller increase. European Central Bank policymaker Rehn said that a rate hike may be needed to preserve credibility. Japan's flash May Manufacturing PMI hit 54.5, as expected (last 55.1) and flash Services PMI hit 50.0 (last 51.0). April trade surplus reached JPY240 bln (expected deficit of JPY230 bln; last surplus of JPY90 bln) as imports grew 9.7% yr/yr (expected 8.3%; last 10.9%) and exports rose 14.8% yr/yr (expected 9.3%; last 11.5%). March Core Machinery Orders were down 9.4% m/m (expected -7.7%; last 13.6%) but up 5.9% yr/yr (expected 4.5%; last 24.7%). South Korea's April PPI was up 2.5% m/m (last 1.7%), rising 6.9% yr/yr (last 4.1%). Hong Kong's April CPI was down 0.1% m/m (last 0.0%), rising 1.7% yr/yr (last 1.7%). Australia's flash May Manufacturing PMI 50.2 (last 51.3) and flash Services PMI hit 47.7 (last 50.7). April Employment decreased by 18,600 (expected 16,700; last 23,300) and full Employment Change decreased by 10,700 (last 63,400). April Unemployment Rate rose to 4.5% from 4.3% (expected 4.3%) and April Participation Rate dipped to 66.7% from 66.8% (expected 66.8%). April Credit Card Spending was up 2.9% yr/yr (last 2.1%). New Zealand's April trade surplus reached NZD1.92 bln (expected NZD980 mln; last NZD430 mln). India's flash May Manufacturing PMI hit 54.3 (last 54.7) and flash Services PMI hit 58.9 (last 58.8). Eurozone's flash May Manufacturing PMI hit 51.4 (expected 51.7; last 52.2) and flash Services PMI hit 46.4 (expected 47.8; last 47.6). March Current Account surplus reached EUR14.9 bln (expected EUR26.3 bln; last EUR25.6 bln). Q1 Labor Cost Index was up 3.3% yr/yr (last 3.3%) and March Construction Output was up 0.78% m/m (last -0.77%). Germany's flash May Manufacturing PMI hit 49.9 (expected 51.0; last 51.4) and flash Services PMI hit 47.8 (expected 47.1; last 46.9). U.K.'s flash May Manufacturing PMI hit 53.7 (expected 52.9; last 53.7) and flash Services PMI hit 47.9 (expected 51.7; last 52.7). France's flash May Manufacturing PMI hit 48.9 (expected 52.1; last 52.8) and flash Services PMI hit 42.9 (expected 46.6; last 46.5). Swiss Q1 Industrial Production was down 7.1% yr/yr (expected 0.5%; last -0.4%). Today's Data: Initial jobless claims for the week ending May 16 decreased by 3,000 to 209,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 210,000), while continuing jobless claims for the week ending May 9 were unchanged from the prior week at 1.782 million. The key takeaway from the report is that there is nothing to see here, meaning there is nothing in these latest numbers that would suggest there has been a sea change in a labor market environment that remains characterized by low firing and low hiring activity. Housing starts decreased 2.8% month-over-month in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.465 million units (Briefing.com consensus: 1.420 million). Building permits rose 5.8% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.442 million (Briefing.com consensus: 1.380 million). The key takeaway from the report is that there was broad-based weakness across all regions for both single-family starts and single-family building permits, underscoring the headwind posed for builders by rising costs for financing, materials, and labor. The Philadelphia Fed Index fell from 26.7 in April to -0.4 in May (Briefing.com consensus: 15.5). The dividing line between expansion and contraction for this survey is 0.0, so the May result reflects a slight contraction in activity versus April. The key takeaway from the report, though, is that the diffusion index for future general activity climbed 12 points to 53.2, which is the highest reading since June 2021 and a sign that manufacturers are expecting better activity to follow in the next six months. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI hit 55.3 in the flash reading for May, up from 54.5 in April. The S&P Global U.S. Services PMI hit 50.9 in the flash reading for May, down from 51.0 in April. Weekly natural gas inventories increased by 101 bcf after increasing by 85 bcf a week ago. Commodities: WTI crude: -2.0% to $96.28/bbl Gold: +0.2% to $4543.40/ozt Copper: -0.6% to $6.29/lb Currencies: EUR/USD: -0.1% to 1.1615 GBP/USD: UNCH at 1.3432 USD/CNH: UNCH at 6.7989 USD/JPY: +0.1% to 159.04 The Day Ahead: 10:00 ET: Final May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Briefing.com consensus 48.2; prior 48.2) and April Leading Index (Briefing.com consensus -0.3%; prior -0.6%)